Hoeveel is 150 miljoen nu echt? Skype gooit met cijfers en schermt met 150 miljoen downloads van haar software voor internettelefonie. Dat klinkt aanmerkelijk, maar enige nuance ontbreekt hierbij. Iedereen die Skype minstens een aantal maanden gebruikt, weet dat hij om de zoveel weken de melding krijgt dat er een nieuwe versie van de client is te downloaden. Die tellen ook allemaal mee in die 150 miljoen.

Gelukkig weet Skype-volger Stuart Henshall Skypes claims (weer) goed te nuanceren:

"(...) How many percent [new users] over the first six months? 10% or 50%? Perhaps 10% even before they make a call and 15% before the second call. (Part of the no buddies connundrum and no free minutes). So the conversion loss could be quite high. Users install to satisfy a friend or family member. Others add it and then don't get enough of their social network across. It's a hard life for a new user. (...) Many users want more than one name. Each registration counts as a new one. (...) My daughter churns her AOL name quite often as do many of her friends. It's a way of cleansing their buddylist. The more youthful Skype's appeal, the greater the likelihood that "churn" has an impact. (...) growth of active users online appears is static (at best). That means the number of new registration is significantly lower. Alternatively, many abandoned Skype in the period. (...)"

Om Malik doet er nog een schepje bovenop en haalt wat Skype-marktcijfers aan:

"(...) I managed to get my hands on some data which shows that the growth might be “really” slowing down, and that is perhaps one of the reasons Skype is out shopping itself. For instance, active users dropped 19% from April to May 2005 in the US, while France and Brazil had no growth during that time. UK and Germany grew at low single digit levels for that time frame. The overall active user base for Skype grew between 35%-to-50% from Q2 2004 through Q1 2005, but in the Q2 the numbers dropped to around 7%. Q3 is showing similar downward trend. (...)"

Gepost door erwin op augustus 18, 2005 05:52 pm | Rubriek: Technologie